Can Congress Actually Pass a Tariff Bill in 2026?

An illustration featuring the U.S. Capitol building, a court gavel, and a document labeled 'Tariff Bill'. The backdrop includes shipping containers and an American flag, accompanied by the text questioning the potential for Congress to pass a tariff bill in 2026.

By Thunder Report Staff

In the wake of the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, the constitutional power to set tariffs has been unmistakably placed back in Congress’s lap. Now the pressing question isn’t whether tariffs can exist — it’s whether Congress can actually pass a tariff bill in 2026. The answer is complicated, contingent on politics, process, and the realities of legislative math.

1. Constitutional Reality After SCOTUS

The Supreme Court made clear that broad, open-ended tariff authority cannot come from vague executive emergency powers. The Constitution gives Congress the exclusive power to tax and regulate foreign commerce under Article I, Section 8.

That means any durable tariff regime must be statutory, not unilateral executive action.

2. Republican Control of Congress — But Thin Margins Matter

The 119th U.S. Congress (2025–2027) remains under Republican control in both chambers.

In theory, that should make tariff legislation more achievable. But party control alone doesn’t guarantee passage:

Narrow majorities mean a single defection can sink a bill.
Leadership must balance pro-tariff populists, free-trade conservatives, and moderates worried about consumer costs.

Republican infighting — even on issues like war powers and immigration this term — suggests unity on complex trade legislation should not be assumed.

3. Existing Trade-Related Bills Give Clues

There are existing legislative efforts that would shape tariff authority:

Trade Review Act of 2025 (S.1272) — Introduced bipartisan legislation requiring congressional review and approval of tariffs beyond a short window.

These kinds of bills provide a procedural framework that Congress could build on — but getting them across the finish line is another matter.

4. Committee Dynamics and Process

For any tariff bill to become law, it must survive several procedural hurdles:

Passed by the House and Senate under regular order, including committee referrals.
Cleared by the House Ways and Means Committee, which handles tax and tariff policy.
Reconciliation between versions from both chambers under the Presentment Clause process.
Signed by the president — or survived over a veto with a two-thirds override.

Even with Republican leadership, every step is a political battleground, especially given opposition from trade groups and businesses over tariff impacts.

5. Public Opinion Isn’t a Simple Bloc

Public attitudes toward tariffs are nuanced:

Americans generally view trade as mutually beneficial.
Many view tariffs as a form of tax that can raise consumer prices.
Attitudes vary significantly by age, partisanship, and national security framing.

That complexity gives defenders of tariffs political cover in some districts, but also ammunition for opponents in others.

6. Big Trade Policy Questions Loom

Even if a tariff bill could pass, which one matters:

Are tariffs broad reciprocal duties targeting trade deficits?
Are they national security tariffs with defense-linked justifications?
Are they targeted industry protections (e.g., semiconductors, rare earths)?
Do they include sunset provisions or Congressional review requirements?

Each of these questions touches off distinct political coalitions and opposition.

Bottom-Line: Possible But Hard

Yes — Congress can pass a tariff bill in 2026, because the Court’s decision leaves open full legislative authority for tariffs.
But — passage is far from guaranteed.

Success hinges on:

Leadership discipline in a narrow GOP majority,
Negotiating intra-party differences,
Crafting tariff language with broad appeal or tactical compromise,
And managing public and interest-group pressure.

If Trump wants a durable tariff regime, Congress must act. But getting a complex, sustainable, and politically acceptable tariff law through the 119th Congress will test GOP unity and legislative strategy — especially in an election year.